Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 Louisiana 35,373
2 Florida 32,267
3 Mississippi 32,024
4 Alabama 30,226
5 Arizona 29,655
6 Georgia 27,721
7 South Carolina 27,717
8 Tennessee 27,107
9 Iowa 26,621
10 Arkansas 26,194
11 Texas 26,154
12 North Dakota 25,528
13 Nevada 25,108
14 New York 23,520
15 Rhode Island 22,948
16 New Jersey 22,893
17 South Dakota 22,717
18 Illinois 22,460
19 Idaho 22,129
20 Nebraska 22,089
21 District of Columbia 21,404
22 Utah 20,950
23 Oklahoma 20,531
24 Delaware 20,484
25 California 20,289
26 Maryland 20,228
27 Missouri 19,738
28 Wisconsin 19,707
29 Kansas 19,370
30 North Carolina 18,996
31 Massachusetts 18,714
32 Indiana 17,302
33 Virginia 16,811
34 Minnesota 16,501
35 Connecticut 15,839
36 Kentucky 15,271
37 Puerto Rico 13,727
38 New Mexico 13,460
39 Michigan 13,257
40 Ohio 12,639
41 Pennsylvania 12,359
42 Colorado 11,763
43 Washington 11,634
44 Alaska 10,956
45 Montana 10,648
46 Wyoming 9,166
47 Hawaii 8,410
48 West Virginia 8,205
49 Oregon 7,555
50 New Hampshire 5,915
51 Maine 3,879
52 Vermont 2,762

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 527
2 South Dakota 462
3 Wisconsin 348
4 Iowa 315
5 Arkansas 296
6 South Carolina 296
7 Utah 287
8 Oklahoma 281
9 Montana 271
10 Idaho 251
11 Missouri 248
12 Nebraska 231
13 Wyoming 207
14 Mississippi 196
15 Kentucky 173
16 Kansas 170
17 Tennessee 165
18 Alabama 164
19 Texas 156
20 Illinois 146
21 Puerto Rico 142
22 Louisiana 139
23 Georgia 136
24 Nevada 131
25 North Carolina 131
26 Minnesota 122
27 Rhode Island 119
28 Florida 117
29 Indiana 110
30 Alaska 109
31 Colorado 104
32 West Virginia 99
33 Delaware 95
34 Michigan 91
35 Virginia 91
36 New Mexico 86
37 California 79
38 Washington 78
39 Hawaii 74
40 Arizona 73
41 Ohio 73
42 Oregon 68
43 Maryland 67
44 Pennsylvania 64
45 District of Columbia 60
46 Massachusetts 57
47 New Jersey 52
48 Connecticut 41
49 New York 40
50 Maine 27
51 New Hampshire 22
52 Vermont 2

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,811
2 New York 1,680
3 Massachusetts 1,358
4 Connecticut 1,261
5 Louisiana 1,166
6 Rhode Island 1,044
7 Mississippi 965
8 District of Columbia 879
9 Arizona 763
10 Michigan 702
11 Illinois 693
12 Delaware 646
13 Maryland 646
14 Florida 642
15 Pennsylvania 636
16 South Carolina 636
17 Georgia 627
18 Texas 537
19 Indiana 527
20 Alabama 511
21 Nevada 508
22 Arkansas 412
23 Iowa 412
24 New Mexico 409
25 Ohio 403
26 California 389
27 Virginia 364
28 Minnesota 361
29 Colorado 354
30 Tennessee 334
31 Missouri 333
32 New Hampshire 322
33 North Carolina 322
34 Washington 285
35 North Dakota 282
36 Kentucky 260
37 Idaho 256
38 Nebraska 247
39 Oklahoma 247
40 South Dakota 237
41 Wisconsin 218
42 Kansas 217
43 Puerto Rico 196
44 West Virginia 181
45 Montana 154
46 Utah 138
47 Oregon 128
48 Maine 104
49 Vermont 92
50 Hawaii 86
51 Wyoming 86
52 Alaska 58

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 North Dakota 8
2 Florida 7
3 Mississippi 7
4 Georgia 6
5 Missouri 6
6 Arkansas 5
7 Alabama 4
8 South Carolina 4
9 Texas 4
10 Arizona 3
11 Kansas 3
12 Louisiana 3
13 Nevada 3
14 North Carolina 3
15 South Dakota 3
16 Tennessee 3
17 Virginia 3
18 California 2
19 Idaho 2
20 Iowa 2
21 Massachusetts 2
22 Nebraska 2
23 Ohio 2
24 Oklahoma 2
25 Rhode Island 2
26 West Virginia 2
27 Delaware 1
28 Illinois 1
29 Indiana 1
30 Kentucky 1
31 Maryland 1
32 Michigan 1
33 Minnesota 1
34 Montana 1
35 New Mexico 1
36 Pennsylvania 1
37 Puerto Rico 1
38 Washington 1
39 Wisconsin 1
40 Alaska 0
41 Colorado 0
42 Connecticut 0
43 District of Columbia 0
44 Hawaii 0
45 Maine 0
46 New Hampshire 0
47 New Jersey 0
48 New York 0
49 Oregon 0
50 Utah 0
51 Vermont 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Lincoln Arkansas 149,570 1 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 149,354 2 99
Lafayette Florida 146,521 3 99
Trousdale Tennessee 146,313 4 99
Lake Tennessee 130,274 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 40,902 192 93
Richland South Carolina 35,677 270 91
York South Carolina 18,660 1129 64
Orange California 17,011 1284 59
Pierce Washington 9,527 2170 30

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 4,966 1 99
Kenedy Texas 4,950 2 99
Emporia city Virginia 4,863 3 99
Galax city Virginia 4,727 4 99
Randolph Georgia 4,131 5 99
Richland South Carolina 563 698 77
Davidson Tennessee 429 971 69
Orange California 372 1108 64
York South Carolina 249 1461 53
Pierce Washington 243 1479 52

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons